Wednesday 20 May 2009

PPIP - harm or good?

I attach an e-mail sent to a macro economics consultant who says his client base uniformly thinks PPIP does more harm than good. I am of the conviction that it is very harmful to tax payers but not to equity holders - it is a boost to equity holders because the non-recourse loan is a subsidy from taxpayers to shareholders of banks.

from e-mail conversation....

but harm to whom?

i am a rational investor so all i care about is what ends up in my pocket

looking at the PPIP plan it is clear that it is a win-win-lose situation, banks win, investors win, taxpayers lose

i'm not a US taxpayer but I do invest in US assets

i have considered the following articles from

http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3593 by dennis Snower - an economist at University of Kiel (a heavyweight...)

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/23/geithner-plan-arithmetic/ by Paul Krugman

http://voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3339 by Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia University

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/01/opinion/01stiglitz.html
by Joseph Stiglietz of Columbia University, Nobel prize winner for economics in 2001

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3e985de0-1ee7-11de-a748-00144feabdc0.html by Payton Young

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/03/geithners-galling-and-dangerous-plan.html by Michael Shedlock

i am concerned with financial assets, from what the guys above are saying the PPIP is a massive transfer of wealth from taxpayers to shareholders in banks - so why aren't we buying the hell out of them and why and to what are your clients thinking its more harm than good?

i continue to view the PPIP as a massive boost to the equity market - as I wrote in my march investment letter

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